The perceived present pilot surplus is set to rapidly swing to a pilot shortage once again. By 2025, demand could outweigh supply by some 34,000. Despite COVID, there’s a huge opportunity right now for aspiring pilots. We take a look at the situation, and how the Complete Pilot Selection Handbook can help kick-start a new career.
From shortage to surplus (to shortage again)
Pre-COVID, there were many conversations about a looming global pilot shortage. In the US, the issues included an aging cohort rapidly approaching mandatory retirement age, as well as the high costs of training and fewer pilots exiting the military. In other geographies, it was more about simply scaling up at the same pace as travel demand was growing.
But as the pandemic knocked the wind out of travel, almost overnight airlines were facing a huge surplus of qualified pilots. For airlines that were facing a looming crisis in pilot recruitment, this provided a temporary reprieve. However, as we’ve already seen, the problem has not gone away.
As traffic has picked back up, particularly in the US domestic market, we’re starting to see the shape of things to come. Delta Air Lines has begun hiring pilots once again, and is looking to recruit more than 1,000 pilots by next summer. Qatar is bringing back pilots and crew from their previously furloughed positions, while United’s CEO Scott Kirby has already flagged a looming shortage of qualified talent on the market. And he’s right.
The pilot shortage in numbers
A recent study by Geoff Murray at Oliver Wyman highlighted the problem that is facing the aviation sector. Murray states that it is not a case of whether a pilot shortage will re-emerge, but when and how significant it will be.
Industry predictions on the recovery of aviation suggest that from 2022 to…