There is growing optimism around an aviation recovery; in the UK it’s almost proportional to the rate of vaccinations and that optimism is beginning to be felt elsewhere with confidence being reinjected into the travel and tourism sector. There is still a very long and difficult journey ahead but at last there may be some better news and quite frankly anyone inside the aviation bubble will have expected the first quarter of the year to be awful; just not this awful.
Domestic & Regional First
It has become commonly accepted that domestic markets will recover first followed by regional international markets. In the case of the very large domestic markets, it could be argued that domestic capacity has probably been as strong as it could be allowing for the absence of any international connectivity. Certainly, the CARES Act in the United States and central government support in China have provided protection to local carriers.
Regional international capacity has been identified as…