The overnight news of a possible new variant of concern emerging in Africa is clearly something that the aviation industry needs to be aware of. But, as famously said by Corporal Jones in Dad’s Army, a great TV comedy, “Don’t Panic”. Airline stock prices have taken a dive this morning, but perhaps that is an overreaction, and if we put the whole situation into context then this is perhaps just one more bump in the road to recovery that we expected, so what is that context?
Limited Market Size
Firstly, Southern Africa is the second smallest regional market in the world with just over 450,000 seats a week, it accounts for less than half of one percent of all global activity. So in that context alone, whilst every market is important, this is a relatively contained market. That level of containment is further highlighted by the table below, which shows this week’s capacity from Southern Africa to other regions of the world; over 80% of all seats are scheduled to operate…