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JetBlue Airways last week disclosed a surprise bid for Spirit Airlines , sparking a battle for the discounter that in February announced a tie-up with fellow budget carrier Frontier Airlines . JetBlue’s bid for Spirit came almost 14 years to the day that Delta Air Lines announced its industry-shaping combination with Northwest Airlines. That set off a wave of airline deal-making over the following eight years that has left four airlines — American , United , Delta and Southwest — in control of about 80% of the U.S. market. A similar deal frenzy among airlines isn’t on the horizon, at least immediately and almost certainly not involving the large carriers whose deals were completed during the previous decade, analysts say. The Biden administration has promised a hard stance against deals that could potentially hurt competition. That’s a big hurdle for more M & A. It all but promises to sideline at least the large carriers that dominate some of the country’s busiest airports. However, it could encourage some smaller carriers to consider combinations, though one medium-sized airline, Alaska Airlines , plans to grow solo. (Its acquisition of Virgin America closed in 2016.) JetBlue last week swooped in with a $3.6 billion all-cash offer for Spirit, above the $2.9 billion cash-and-stock deal Frontier and Spirit disclosed in February. Whichever airline wins the Spirit board’s blessing, the deal still will have to pass muster with regulators. “One of two [Spirit] deals happen but it’s not a slam dunk,” said Savanthi Syth, airline analyst at Raymond James. “If they do, I don’t see any more in the immediate future. Down the road, I do see an opportunity with M & A” but for smaller airlines. To get a sense of the mood, consider the Justice Department has sued JetBlue and American over a Northeast partnership that allows them to coordinate routes. JetBlue said it wants to keep that alliance even if it acquires Spirit. The Justice Department didn’t comment for this…
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