Is Korean Air Lines (KRX:003490) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.’ When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. (KRX:003490) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of ‘creative destruction’ where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Korean Air Lines

How Much Debt Does Korean Air Lines Carry?

As you can see below, Korean Air Lines had ₩6.51t of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₩6.18t, its net debt is less, at about ₩335.0b.

How Strong Is Korean Air Lines’ Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Korean Air Lines had liabilities of ₩9.41t falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₩11t due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₩6.18t and ₩1.15t worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₩13t more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the ₩8.15t company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we’d watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Korean Air Lines would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Korean Air Lines’s debt of just 0.095 times EBITDA is really very modest. And this impression is enhanced by its strong EBIT which covers interest costs 8.0 times. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Korean Air Lines if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 37% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Korean Air Lines’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Korean Air Lines actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There’s nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders’ good graces.

Our View

To be frank both Korean Air Lines’s EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Korean Air Lines’s debt is making it a bit risky. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but we’d generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Korean Air Lines , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If, after all that, you’re more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.