Airbnb’s Network Effect Supported by Its Investments, Despite Near-Term Economic Peril

Although slowing US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, we think Airbnb’s global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by artificial intelligence investment and expansion into experiences and international markets over the next several years. Airbnb is also positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift to mobile bookings: It is a top-10 travel iPhone app in 118 countries, versus 135 for Booking and 23 for Expedia, according to App Annie as of Jan. 20.