Air Cargo Demand Declines Slightly in February

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2025 global air cargo markets showing:

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), declined by 0.1% compared to February 2024 levels (+0.4% for international operations). This marks the first decline since mid-2023.
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 0.4% compared to February 2024 (+1.1% for international operations).

*Year-on-year comparisons are affected by the extra day in February 2024 due to the leap year.

“February saw a small contraction in air cargo demand, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2023. Much of this is explained by February 2024 being extraordinary—a leap year that was also boosted by Chinese New Year traffic, sea lane closures and a boom in e-commerce. Rising trade tensions are, of course, a concern for air cargo. With equity markets already showing their discomfort, we urge governments to focus on dialogue over tariffs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

• In January, the industrial production index rose 3.2% year-on-year, the highest growth in two years and world trade expanded by 5%.
• Jet fuel prices averaged $94.6/barrel in February, a 2.1% drop from January.
• In February, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark (51.5), indicating growth. The PMI for new export orders rose slightly to 49.60 from the previous month, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold.
• In February, consumer inflation remained elevated in the US, Europe, and Japan, easing only slightly from the previous month. In contrast, China recorded its first decline in consumer prices in 11 months, reinforcing signs of persistent deflationary pressure in the economy.

Air Cargo Market in Detail

 (*1) % of industry CTKs in 2024    (*2) Year-on-year change in load factor     (*3) Load factor level

February Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 5.1% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity increased by 2.7% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 3.5% year-on-year.

European carriers saw a 0.1% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased 0.2% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw an 11.9% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February, the slowest among the regions. Capacity decreased by 4.0% year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw 6.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 7.6% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a 5.7% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. 

Trade Lane Growth: The Trans-Pacific corridor remained the busiest trade lane in February. Intra-Asia led growth, becoming the fifth busiest. Europe–Asia and Transatlantic routes also expanded, while Middle East–Asia and European routes declined.

*Share is based on full-year 2024 CTKs.

> View February 2025 Air Cargo Market Analysis (pdf)

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