I am cutting (global) travel industry growth targets by 15% for June/July/August summer travel for the following reasons:
Airline Supply Issues
Airlines are “facing some supply issues – supply of aircrew, of air routes, of air fuel and, maybe most important of all, of airline pilots“, per NPR.
“Pilots are in really short supply, and airlines are struggling to get the left and right seats filled in their cockpits… He says this shortage has been on his radar for years.” per pilot and Southwest Airlines pilot association head Casey Murray.
These supply problems cannot be fixed overnight. These are quite concerning, there no quick fix and this unfortunate mix will drive airlines to pass on their increased costs onto travelers in the form of higher pricing.
GDP Growth Reduction
The reduction in global GDP growth ranging from 0.9% to 1.5 pp (as of May 2022) by the likes of Goldman Sachs, the European Union, the IMF, and others. Goldman Sachs…
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