With another tariff induced red-tinged day hammering markets, I wondered: Do private markets follow public ones? The data suggests yes—but with a delay & at a fraction of the magnitude.
A 1% increase in Nasdaq’s (QQQ) quarterly return translates to a 0.47% rise in median Series A valuations—but only after a two-quarter delay.
The inverse holds true as well: when public markets contract, private valuations follow suit approximately six months later at roughly half the intensity.
You can see this in the charts where the Nasdaq plummeted, but it would take some time for the private markets to react both for the median Series A, but even more for the top quartile (P75).
These relationships are statistically detectable but don’t explain most of the variance: the Nasdaq’s lagged returns explain only about 7.5% of the variation in Series A valuations
This means that while public market performance does influence private valuations, it’s just one factor among…
