Over 2024, we project Kenya’s total tourist arrivals to fully recover to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, reaching 2.2mn. This will represent a growth of 14.9% y-o-y in arrivals and will mark an increase from 1.9mn arrivals in 2023, with arrivals outpacing levels seen in 2019 at 2.1mn.
To ensure this growth trajectory and potential upside, it is key that Kenya attracts not just its traditional source markets such as Uganda (accounting for an estimated 12.1% of total arrivals in 2024), the US (11.8%), Tanzania (9.1%) and the UK (8.7%) but also source markets where departures are set to rapidly increase over the medium- (2024-2028) and longer (2024-2050).
China is such an option. In 2019 China was Kenya’s sixth largest arrivals largest source market with 83,390 arrivals (or 4.1% of total arrivals). In 2020, this level dramatically declined due to Covid-19, as well as due to China’s lengthy travel restrictions, which remained in place between March 2020 and January 2023, with travel…
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