Nitish Kumar who stiched the INDI alliance together may join the NDA ship | Image:ANI/PTI
Patna: Amid speculations of Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) president Nitish Kumar deserting the ruling ‘Mahagathbandhan’ and joining back the NDA ship, the Bharatiya Janata Party is set to benefit with Nitish’s move. Nitish Kumar is expected to resign by 7pm on Saturday while preparations are underway for his swearing-in ceremony at the secretariat in Patna on January 28, suggest sources.
Signalling his probable return to the NDA, Nitish Kumar was seen at the inauguration of beautification work at the famous Baba Brahmeshwar Nath temple in Brahmpur, Buxar along with BJP leader and union minister Ashwani Kumar Choubey. The visit raised eyebrows as the inauguration project was undertaken by the tourism department currently held by Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav who skipped the function.
Friction within Mahagathbandhan in Bihar
Observers highlighted that Tejashwi Yadav did not attend the high tea ceremony at the Raj Bhavan in Patna on Friday, organised every year on the occasion of the Republic Day. Further, the friction within the INDI alliance in Bihar was visible after the central government announced Bharat Ratna to former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur. Nitish Kumar said in a public meeting, “Karpoori never promoted his family”.
Also the replacement of Education minister Chandra Shekhar with Alok Kumar Mehta and Lalan Singh. Lalan Singh was removed from the post of JD(U) president, a post taken over by Nitish Kumar. It was speculated that Singh was dropped from the top post over his proximity with the RJD leaders.
JDU, RJD hold separate meetings in Bihar
Amid speculations of Nitish Kumar deserting Mahagathbandhan, top leaders of the JD(U) met at CM’s residence in Patna. Leaders like former national president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, ‘Lalan’, minister and national general secretary Sanjay Kumar Jha and state legislative council chairman Devesh Chandra Thakur met at 1, Anney Marg, the CM’s official residence in Patna.
On the other hand, RJD leaders in Bihar gathered at party president Lalu Prasad’s home in Patna amid fears that the party might be ditched by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Besides Prasad, his son Tejashwi Yadav, who is the Deputy CM, and wife Rabri Devi, a former chief minister, were present at the meeting attended by senior leaders, including members of the state legislature.
Understanding the number game in Bihar
Currently, Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is the biggest party in the Bihar legislative assembly with 79 MLAs, while the BJP stands second with 78 MLAs. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) stands distant third with 45 MLAs and the Congress has 19. The Left parties have 14 seats.
A political party needs 122 (half) of the total 243 seats to form government in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar has 159 MLAs in total. If Nitish Kumar returns to the NDA fold, the alliance will have 157 MLAs- a clear cut majority.
Further, if the JD(U) quits and the RJD under Tejashwi Yadav plans to stake claim for the government in alliance with the Left parties, then the coalition would need 8 more MLAs to come into power in the state.
BJP to gain from Nitish’s return ahead of polls
With Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA fold, the ultimate beneficiary would be Nitish Kumar as he would be sworn in as the chief minister of the state for the third swearing ceremony within five years with the third largest number of MLAs within the Bihar assembly. Further, Nitish Kumar enjoys no loyal caste backing. Nitish Kumar is a Kurmi, a caste that accounts for just 2.87 per cent of Bihar’s population. This, too, in a state where the caste factor mostly trumps everything else in politics.
But it seems that BJP remains the ultimate beneficiary as Nitish’s return to NDA marks the final blow to the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance. Nitish Kumar is credited for stitching the Opposition parties together under the banner of INDI alliance.
Apart from discrediting the INDI alliance, with Nitish Kumar returning to NDA, BJP gains one more state just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for later this year. This not only acts as an image booster but may enhance BJP’s chance of winning in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha, thus making it a crucial state from the numbers perspective.
