American Airlines (AAL – Free Report) benefits from an improved debt to equity ratio, strong air-travel demand and fleet-upgrade efforts. However, high costs, declining cargo revenues and low liquidity negatively impact the bottom line.
Factors Favoring AAL
Strong air-travel rebound, especially domestically, benefits American Airlines. In 2023, revenue passenger miles grew 7.6%, prompting a 6.7% rise in average seat miles to meet heightened demand.
Bolstered by increased air-travel demand, AAL is expanding routes and networks. In 2022, Seattle-Bengaluru route launched. Efforts to modernize its fleet also bode well.
The carrier impressively targets a $15 billion debt reduction by 2025 through amortization, using surplus and free cash flow. Notably, it reduced debt by $3.2 billion in 2023.
Key Risks
High fuel costs negatively impact the airline’s bottom line. Despite a decline from the third quarter of 2023 highs, oil prices remain elevated. Management expects the metric in the $2.65-$2.85 per gallon range in first-quarter 2024. Our estimate is currently pegged at $2.75.
Cargo revenues dipped 34.1% year over year in 2023 due to decreased cargo yield from heightened air-freight capacity. Cargo yield per ton mile also declined by 29.4%.
Rising labor expenses impact AAL’s bottom line. As a result of the deal with pilots, salaries, wages and benefits in fourth-quarter 2023 increased 15.6% from fourth-quarter 2022 actuals. Due to high labor costs, management expects cost per available seat miles (adjusted) in first-quarter 2024 to increase 2-4% from first-quarter 2023 actuals.
Zacks Rank
AALcurrently carries Zacks Rank #3(Hold)
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks for investors’ consideration in the Zacks Transportation sector include GATX Corporation (GATX – Free Report) and Skywest Inc. (SKYW – Free Report) . Each stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
GATX has an encouraging track record with respect to earnings surprise, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the past four quarters and missing the mark in the remaining one. The average beat is 16.47%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has been revised 6.1% upward over the past 90 days. GATX has an expected earnings growth rate of 3.7% for 2024. Shares of GATX have risen 19.5% in the past year.
SkyWest’s fleet modernization efforts are commendable. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s 2024 earnings has improved 11.1% over the past 90 days. Shares of SkyWest have surged 222.1% in the past year.
The company has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for 2024. SKYW delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 128.02%, on average.
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