Aviation: widebody order activity is heating up in the Asia-Pacific region

Summary:

• There are 5,468 narrowbody aircraft on order in the Asia-Pacific region, versus just 566 widebodies.
• Japan Airlines and Korean Air announced more than 60 widebody orders on the same day in Mar-2024.
• At least five other Asian airlines have revealed widebody orders in the first quarter, with two more following.
• Boeing accounts for a 55.8% share of Asia-Pacific widebodies in service, and 61.3% of orders.
• There are nearly 1,700 widebody passenger aircraft in service in the region – although this is approximately 100 less than the pre-pandemic total.

The Asia-Pacific order backlog is heavily skewed towards narrowbodies, but this year orders have been more balanced

The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 5,468 narrowbody aircraft orders, as of 1-Apr-2024, according to data from CAPA – Centre for Aviation. This dwarfs the current total of 566 widebody orders placed by the region’s airlines.

Narrowbody orders were inflated by some major deals in 2023, including commitments for a combined 1,000 aircraft by IndiGo, Air India and Akasa Air.

Including these, there were more than 1,200 narrowbody orders placed with Airbus and Boeing by Asia-Pacific airlines in 2023, versus about 200 widebody orders, data from the manufacturers shows.

Although the flow of narrowbody orders is continuing in the early stages of 2024 the balance is more even, as several passenger widebody orders have been announced, with more to follow.

The most recent moves came from Japan Airlines and Korean Air, which both revealed their order plans on 21-Mar-2024. JAL announced that it would order 21 Airbus A350-900s and 10 Boeing 787-9s – primarily for international duties. Korean has ordered 27 Airbus A350-1000s and six A350-900s.

These deals followed multiple passenger widebody order announcements at the Singapore Airshow, including 20 Airbus A330neos for Vietjet, four 787s for Royal Brunei Airlines, and three A330neos and five A350Fs for Starlux Airlines. Just before the air show Thai Airways confirmed that it was the previously undisclosed customer for 45 Boeing 787s.

More widebody orders are pending. Malaysia Airlines expects to decide by the third quarter whether to exercise options for 20 more A330neos, and Cathay Pacific is considering a significant mid-size widebody order.

Others will likely emerge through the year.

Ambitious growth plans for Asia-Pacific LCCs have inflated narrowbody orders

However, although the recent flurry of widebody activity is noteworthy, it will do little to shift the long term trend of narrowbody dominance in the Asia-Pacific market.

More than 58% of commercial aircraft in service in the Asia-Pacific region for the week of 8-Apr-2024 were narrowbodies, according to data from CAPA – Centre for Aviation. Widebodies represent 18%, and other categories, such as regional aircraft and turboprops, make up the remainder.

The share of narrowbodies is even higher in the region’s aircraft order backlog, comprising 82% of the total, versus 10% for widebodies. This highlights the widening gulf between narrowbody and widebody orders.

Although Airbus leads the region’s narrowbody market, Boeing has the upper hand with widebodies

Boeing has the largest share of widebodies in service among Asia-Pacific airlines – accounting for 57% of the total, versus 43% for Airbus.

This is almost a reverse of the narrowbody sector, where Airbus has a 57% share of aircraft in service, versus 43% for Boeing. In terms of widebody orders, Boeing accounts for 61% of the region’s total.

The widebody type with the largest share of orders in Asia-Pacific is the Boeing 787, with 45%. This is followed by the A350, with 29%, the 777 with 16%, and the A330 with 11%.

Passenger widebody count still trails the pre-pandemic total, although fleet replacement will likely play a larger role than growth.

Of the 1988 widebodies in service in the Asia-Pacific region, 1,692 are passenger aircraft. The remainder are predominantly freighters, with a handful of executive, tanker and surveillance aircraft.

The chart below shows that the passenger widebody number is still lower than the 1,800 in service in Jan-2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. This illustrates how retirements have outnumbered new deliveries since then – and helps explain the recent widebody order activity.