Summary
- Kenya Airways has served New York JFK since 2018.
- The airline’s Head of Network Planning and Alliances has said its codeshare with Delta has transformed the route.
- Despite being operationally profitable, it is still loss-making, as this only covers operating costs – not aircraft ownership and overhead costs.
You would be forgiven for thinking that Kenya Airways‘ New York JFK operation is an exercise in flag-waving, a political and heavily loss-making endeavor. Many have thought that, including me. During the latest of AviaDev’s excellent podcasts on African aviation, Kenya Airways’ Martin Gitonga, Head of Network Planning and Alliances, shed a bit more light on the route.
Kenya Airways to JFK: a summary
The SkyTeam member began flying to New York in October 2018. The long, 7,360-mile (11,844 km) route operates five times weekly this winter. KQ2 (not KQ1) leaves Nairobi at 23:35 and arrives at JFK at 06:35+1. Returning, KQ3 departs at 13:45 and arrives back at 11:15+1. It will return to being daily at the end of March.
Photo: Suparat Chairatprasert I Shutterstock
According to US Department of Transportation data, Kenya Airways carried about 90,000 roundtrip JFK passengers between January and October 2023, the last available month. A money-by-month view is provided below. It had an average seat load factor of 91%, which is very healthy in itself. However, this should not be considered in isolation and should always be about how it was achieved.
As the figure shows, the pandemic continued to impact the first few months of the year. This hides the degree to which the capacity-demand balance for the shoulder season needs more work. The summer-seasonal nature of the market, when it operated daily, is clear to see, with high traffic and loads – and, hopefully, sufficiently high fares and yields.
Source: US DOT. Image: James Pearson
What the airline says
Speaking on AviaDev’s podcast, Gitonga, Kenya Airways’ network chief, said that,
“New York is another flagship destination. We are going back to daily to JFK. The growth is propelled
by our
performance
.
“
The last bit is significant and may be surprising. Gitonga clarified it by stating that,
“It is not just a flagship in terms of being a good destination. In August 2023, we started a full codeshare with the biggest revenue airline globally, Delta. The partnership has really propelled this route.”
Booking data for August-October 2023 suggests that about 36% of Kenya Airways’ JFK passengers connected to another flight at the airport. It was its single largest source of traffic (Kenya Airways’ partnership with JetBlue helped too, albeit to a much smaller degree). The codeshare with Delta means it also gains additional traffic and revenue from the USA’s ‘Fly America’ requirement for government officials.
Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying
Now “operationally profitable”
The relationship with fellow SkyTeam carrier Delta has been instrumental.
We are seeing those numbers really translating into our flights, and we closed last year with JFK having the highest number of occupied seats in business class. That is business class, so I won’t go into the fares [the other half of the equation].”
Gitonga stated that JFK is now operationally profitable. But this is just one level of profitability. It means it covers operating cash costs but excludes aircraft ownership and overheads. The route is, therefore, still loss-making, but one hurdle has been cleared. And it does, of course, play an important role in connectivity.
Photo: Kittikun Yoksap | Shutterstock
Is a daily+ service coming?
Given the above, Gitonga stated that the carrier is considering increasing JFK frequencies. However, if it is rushed or excessive, it has the potential to unwind the progress made to date.
We will maintain JFK as a daily year-round service [it is unclear if this means daily in winter, too]. However, we are analyzing if there is the potential for more frequencies, crew and equipment permitting.
We currently have a departure in the evening to JFK and an arrival back in Nairobi at around midday. We want a morning departure from Nairobi, arriving back in Kenya towards the evening.”
What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comment section.
