KGI Keeps ‘Overweight’ Rating, Forecasts Tourism Boost During Thailand’s High Season

Article Summary:
The article from KGI Securities (Thailand) discusses the company’s analysis of Thailand’s tourism sector, maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating despite a downward revision in the forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2025. This revision is based on data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, which reported a 7.5% year-on-year decline in international tourist arrivals to 2.91 million in November 2025. The total for the first eleven months reached 29.6 million, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period last year. A significant factor in this decline was a sharp 33.8% year-on-year drop in Chinese tourists, particularly after October’s Golden Week. However, growth was observed in major segments such as European and South Asian tourists, with growth rates of 12.8% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively.

Key Points:

1. KGI Securities maintains an ‘Overweight’ rating on Thailand’s tourism sector despite a downward revision in the forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2025.
2. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported a 7.5% year-on-year decline in international tourist arrivals to 2.91 million in November 2025.
3. The total for the first eleven months reached 29.6 million, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period last year.
4. A significant factor in the decline was a sharp 33.8% year-on-year drop in Chinese tourists, particularly after October’s Golden Week.
5. Growth was observed in major segments such as European and South Asian tourists, with growth rates of 12.8% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively.

Actionable Takeaways:

• Sector Resilience: Despite a significant decline in international tourist arrivals, particularly from China, Thailand’s tourism sector maintains an ‘Overweight’ rating. This suggests resilience and potential for recovery, indicating that the sector may be better positioned than anticipated to bounce back.
• Regional Growth Opportunities: The growth in European and South Asian tourists presents a significant opportunity for Thailand’s tourism sector. This trend highlights the importance of targeting these regions in marketing and promotional strategies to capitalize on the growing interest.
• Importance of Chinese Market: The sharp decline in Chinese tourists underscores the sensitivity of the tourism sector to geopolitical events and travel restrictions. Travel companies and policymakers should closely monitor developments in China and consider strategies to mitigate the impact of such declines.

Contextual Insights:
The article reflects the current challenges and opportunities in Thailand’s tourism sector amidst global uncertainties. The decline in international tourist arrivals, especially from China, highlights the sector’s vulnerability to geopolitical factors and travel restrictions. However, the growth in European and South Asian tourists indicates a diversified market with potential for recovery and growth. This context is crucial for understanding the broader implications for travel startups and fintech innovations, as these sectors may need to adapt their strategies to cater to the evolving preferences and behaviors of tourists. The resilience of the sector, as indicated by KGI Securities’ ‘Overweight’ rating, suggests that despite current challenges, there are opportunities for growth and innovation, particularly in targeting specific regional markets and leveraging digital technologies to enhance the tourist experience.

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