Maldives: India’s three dilemmas

India faces three dilemmas in the evolving situation in the Maldives. Firstly, should India maintain a close association with the incumbent government of its neighbouring country or adopt a quiet, more hands-off approach? This question is important because India’s neighbourhood is a complicated arena, and, in most South Asian countries, relations with India tend to become a matter of intense domestic politics. If New Delhi is seen as aligning too closely with one group and alienating the other, the potential political costs of such a behaviour might be high when tides turn. In the Maldives, from 2018 until 2023, the incumbent government was seen as close to New Delhi. In fact, the government had a declared ‘India First’ policy. In response, the Maldivian opposition campaigned on the ‘India Out’ platform and succeeded. Since then, India has been negotiating with the new government to ensure that its strategic influence and presence do not dissipate. The increasing presence…